{
 "id": "triangulation",
 "title": "Key figures weighed across sources: best estimate, range and confidence",
 "attribution": "Qentak Research, The State of Independent & Home Education in Canada, 2026 Edition.",
 "notes": [
  "Each figure weighed across multiple independent sources; differences reconciled by cause (definition, year, geography, rounding, methodology)."
 ],
 "retrieved": "2026-11-15",
 "rows": [
  {
   "id": "TRI-01",
   "topic": "Independent share of K-12, growth since 2000/01",
   "best_estimate": "Independent SHARE of K-12 rose 45% (5.9% to 8.5%, 2000/01 to 2023/24); independent HEADCOUNT rose about 51% (318,947 to 482,939)",
   "range": "Share +45%; headcount +51.4% (Fraser, ministry-based). StatCan open table (starts 2006/07): headcount +36.5% 2006/07 to 2024/25 (351,408 to 479,571), a later start and a different definition",
   "confidence": "high (for the stated definition)",
   "basis": "Same Fraser release read via two republications; StatCan trajectory points the same way; 45% vs 51% is share vs headcount, 51% vs 36% is start year",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR; S-SC-TBL-0109; S-SC-DAILY-2026",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (share vs headcount), start year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-02",
   "topic": "Public school change since 2000/01",
   "best_estimate": "Public SHARE fell from 93.8% to 90.4% (a 3.7% relative fall); public HEADCOUNT edged up 0.6%",
   "range": "Fraser: public headcount +0.6% nominal, total enrolment +4.5%. StatCan open table: public headcount +7.1% 2006/07 to 2024/25 (4,882,290 to 5,229,759); Cardus +4.5% 2006/07 to 2021/22",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Fraser headline is a share change; every headcount series (Fraser, StatCan, Cardus) shows public headcount flat to rising",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR; S-SC-TBL-0109; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (share vs headcount)"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-03",
   "topic": "Share of K-12 students in independent schools, latest",
   "best_estimate": "About 8.0% to 8.5% attend independent schools (nearly one in twelve)",
   "range": "StatCan Daily 8.0% (2024/25, new high, fourth straight rise); Fraser 8.5% (2023/24); StatCan open table, regular programs for youth, computed 8.2% (2023/24) and 8.3% (2024/25); Cardus 7.7% (2021/22); StatCan 7.6% (2019/20)",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Series agree once year and denominator are aligned; Fraser counts about 3.6% more independent students than StatCan (482,939 vs 466,257 in 2023/24) and uses a different denominator",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-DAILY-2026; S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year, denominator, definition"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-04",
   "topic": "Share learning outside government-run schools (independent + homeschool)",
   "best_estimate": "About 9% to 9.5% on registered numbers; published estimates allowing for under-reporting reach 11% to 12%",
   "range": "Cardus: 9% (2021/22, 7.7% + 1.2%); StatCan open table computed 9.1% (2022/23), 9.3% (2023/24), 9.5% (2024/25); Cardus 'up to 11 or 12 percent' (an estimate, 2023)",
   "confidence": "medium (registered 9-9.5% high; 11-12% low)",
   "basis": "Registered counts add independent + registered homeschool; the 11-12% is Cardus's own allowance for under-reporting and trend",
   "supporting_sources": "S-CARDUS-CNH-2023; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-05",
   "topic": "British Columbia independent share ('one in seven')",
   "best_estimate": "About 13% to 14% of BC students: roughly one in seven to one in eight, and close to one in seven once home education is included",
   "range": "Fraser 13.2% (2023/24); StatCan 13.2-13.3% (2019/20-2024/25); Cardus 13.7% (2026, StatCan basis) and 'nearly 15%' with home education",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "1 in 7 = 14.3%; 13.7% is 1 in 7.3 and 13.2% is 1 in 7.6; all sources within half a point",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR; S-CARDUS-BT-2026; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "rounding, year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-06",
   "topic": "Number of independent schools in Canada",
   "best_estimate": "1,935 was Fraser's count for 2013/14 (ten provinces). The current number is higher: Ontario alone grew from about 954 (2013/14) to more than 1,670 (Cardus 2026), so the national total is well above 2,000 today. No published consolidated current count was found",
   "range": "1,935 (2013/14, Fraser 2016); 'about 2,000' (secondary summary); Ontario 1,445 (July 2022, Cardus) and over 1,670 (2026, Cardus); Manitoba 138 (Oct 2025); Alberta about 180 (Cardus-linked column, Oct 2025)",
   "confidence": "high for 1,935 as a 2013/14 fact; low for any current national total",
   "basis": "1,935 traced to Van Pelt and Allison, A Diverse Landscape (Fraser, 2016); later provincial counts show growth",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-DL-2016; S-CARDUS-ND-2022; S-CARDUS-BT-2026; S-MB-ENR-2025",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-07",
   "topic": "Independent school students, count",
   "best_estimate": "About 480,000 independent students today (466,000-483,000 across 2023/24-2024/25); the draft's 368,717 and 6.8% (about one in fifteen) are correct for 2013/14",
   "range": "368,717 / 6.8% (2013/14 Fraser 2016); 427,023-433,152 (2019/20 StatCan, two vintages); 441,171 (2021/22 Cardus); 466,257 (2023/24 StatCan); 482,939 (2023/24 Fraser); 479,571 (2024/25 StatCan); over 470,000 (Cardus 2026)",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Same sector measured in different years; every post-2019 source lies within 3.6% of the others",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-DL-2016; S-SC-TBL-0109; S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR; S-CARDUS-BT-2026; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-08",
   "topic": "Registered homeschool enrolment, national series",
   "best_estimate": "Reported (StatCan): 18,426 (2006/07); 33,006 (2016/17); 40,608 (2019/20); 83,988 (2020/21, earlier published as 83,784); 68,466 (2021/22); 57,894 (2022/23); 63,150 (2023/24); 66,228 (2024/25)",
   "range": "2020/21: 83,784 (Daily 2022) to 83,988 (current table, revised); 2021/22: 67,008 (Cardus) to 68,466 (current table); 2016: about 33,000 reported; the draft's 60,000 matches only a magazine estimate and a Wikipedia summary",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Single national statistical series, echoed by Cardus, Fraser (Ontario 13,131) and Alberta Education; later vintages revise slightly",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-TBL-0109; S-SC-DAILY-2022; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023; S-SC-TBL-0178",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (reported vs estimated), vintage"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-09",
   "topic": "Homeschool growth 2006 to 2022",
   "best_estimate": "More than tripled: +264% (Cardus, 18,432 to 67,008, 2006/07 to 2021/22); +272% on the current StatCan vintage (18,426 to 68,466)",
   "range": "+259% to +272% depending on vintage and end year",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Same StatCan series; ratio is 3.6x to 3.7x, so 'nearly tripled' understates",
   "supporting_sources": "S-CARDUS-CNH-2023; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "rounding, vintage"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-10",
   "topic": "Actual number of homeschooled children (reported plus unregistered)",
   "best_estimate": "Reported about 66,000 (2024/25). Estimated actual practice roughly 80,000 to 100,000 or more; the draft's ~100,000 sits at the upper end and is an estimate, not a count",
   "range": "Floor 66,228 (StatCan reported). Two heuristics: reported +20-30% (a homeschool-sector blog, unsourced) gives 79,000-86,000; Cardus's statement that prairie rates are closer to 6% than the reported ~3% (about double), applied to AB+SK+MB only (about 36,000 reported), adds roughly 36,000 and gives about 100,000-102,000",
   "confidence": "low (estimate); high for the 66,000 reported floor",
   "basis": "No registry covers unregistered families; the range is our arithmetic from two heuristics, shown, not a published count",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-TBL-0109; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (reported vs estimated)"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-11",
   "topic": "Prairie homeschool rates, reported vs estimated",
   "best_estimate": "Reported (StatCan): 1.4-2.0% in 2019/20; 3.1% AB, 3.0% MB, 2.4% SK in 2021/22; 3.2% AB, 2.4% MB, 2.3% SK in 2024/25. Cardus: reported 'nearly 3%' in SK and AB (2021); credible estimates closer to 6%",
   "range": "1.4-3.2% reported depending on year; about 6% estimated (Cardus)",
   "confidence": "high (reported), low (estimated)",
   "basis": "Owner's 1.5-1.9% is the 2019/20 pre-pandemic level; rates roughly doubled in 2020/21",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-TBL-0109; S-CARDUS-CNH-2023; S-SC-T001C-2021",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-12",
   "topic": "Which province has the most homeschoolers / highest rate",
   "best_estimate": "Alberta has both the highest rate among provinces (3.2%, 2024/25) and the largest number (25,977); Ontario is second (13,269). Ontario has the largest number of independent plus homeschool students combined (Cardus)",
   "range": "Alberta 14,730 (2019/20), 25,305 (2020/21), 24,279 (2023/24), 25,977 (2024/25) StatCan; Alberta Education 24,158 home education plus 2,274 shared responsibility (Jan 2025); Ontario 9,888 (2019/20), 23,670 (2020/21), 13,131 (2023/24, also in Fraser's Ontario release), 13,269 (2024/25). Yukon's rate is higher (4.7-5.2%) on very small numbers",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Three independent sources (StatCan, Alberta Education via Cardus, Fraser Ontario release) agree",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-TBL-0109; S-CARDUS-ALBERTA-MEMO-2026; S-FI-WOSE-2026-ON",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (homeschool alone vs combined), year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-13",
   "topic": "BC homeschool share 'only province declining'",
   "best_estimate": "Fraser's 2022 edition (to 2019/20) reportedly found BC the one province without a home-schooling increase over its window; StatCan's current series shows BC up from 2,454 (2019/20) to 4,458 (2024/25), with a series break in 2009/10 (555 to 2,229)",
   "range": "BC 0.4% (2019/20) to 0.6% (2024/25)",
   "confidence": "low-medium",
   "basis": "Claim traced only to a search summary of Fraser 2022; window and definition differ from StatCan",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-WOSE-2022; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year, series break"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-14",
   "topic": "Provincial independent enrolment and share, 2019/20",
   "best_estimate": "Owner's cells agree with StatCan's current 'regular programs for youth' series for QC (126,868 vs 126,870), BC (87,168 vs 87,222), AB (31,612 vs 31,500), NL and PE (exact) and ON (153,291 vs 154,638, 0.9%). Differences for MB (16,254 vs 14,325), SK (5,228 vs 5,511), NS (3,865 vs 4,179), NB (970 vs 1,272) are consistent with ministry-based (Fraser) vs survey-based (StatCan) counting",
   "range": "Differences 0.0% to 24% by province; largest in the smallest systems (NB, MB)",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "basis": "Fraser compiles from ministries; StatCan from the survey; Fraser 2022 PDF could not be read to confirm cell by cell",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-TBL-0109; S-FI-WOSE-2022",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (ministry vs survey), program scope"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-15",
   "topic": "Provincial independent growth since 2000",
   "best_estimate": "Quoted as Fraser 2022 figures; not re-derivable (StatCan open table starts 2006/07). Directionally supported: Alberta 23,617 (2000/01, Fraser 2026 summary) to 31,500 (2019/20) is +33.4% vs the draft's +33.9%; every province with data shows growth since 2006/07 (ON +35%, BC +33%, NS +23%, MB +14%, SK +176%, QC +2%)",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "medium (AB checked; others directional)",
   "basis": "One recomputation matches to half a point; the rest consistent in direction and plausible in size",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-WOSE-2022; S-FI-WOSE-2026-AB; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "no common base year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-16",
   "topic": "Alberta independent share 4.3% (2019/20) vs 6.7% (2023/24)",
   "best_estimate": "Not a real jump. Alberta Education's authority totals count supervised home-education students inside independent authorities (15,332 of 48,024 in 2024/25); Fraser's 2023/24 Alberta figure (54,019) appears to use that broader count, while StatCan (38,592 in 2023/24; 39,969 in 2024/25) and the draft's 2019/20 figure use regular students",
   "range": "Alberta independent: 31,500 (StatCan 2019/20) to 54,019 (Fraser 2023/24) depending on whether supervised home education is counted; regular independent about 31,476 (Alberta Education 2024/25 via Cardus)",
   "confidence": "medium (cause inferred; Fraser PDF unread)",
   "basis": "Cardus memo of 10 April 2026 documents the double counting; the size of Fraser's number matches the broader count",
   "supporting_sources": "S-CARDUS-ALBERTA-MEMO-2026; S-SC-TBL-0109; S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (home education counted within independent authorities)"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-17",
   "topic": "Funding of independent schools, percent of public per-student amount",
   "best_estimate": "Roughly 35% to 70%, on different bases: BC 50% (Group 1) or 35% (Group 2) of the local district grant; SK 50% of the provincial per-student average; MB 50% of public net operating cost per FTE, capped ($6,837 per eligible pupil, 2025/26); QC about 60% of the public per-pupil amount for educational services; AB about 70% of public base instruction rates (100% for some categories)",
   "range": "BC 35-50 (official); SK 50 (official); MB 50 (official); QC 50-60 (secondary: Policy Alternatives, FEEP, others; FEEP says the subsidy is about 40% of total cost); AB 70 (CBC, Alberta School Councils, a blog quoting the manual; Funding Manual not read). No source for 80%",
   "confidence": "high for BC, SK, MB; medium for AB and QC",
   "basis": "Three of five from government text; the other two from several independent secondary sources agreeing",
   "supporting_sources": "S-BC-IS-FUND; S-SK-QIS; S-MB-FUND-2526; S-AB-FUND-SEC; S-QC-FUND-SEC",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (base differs by province)"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-18",
   "topic": "Saskatchewan: funding start and growth",
   "best_estimate": "Funding of Qualified Independent Schools began in 2012-13 (confirmed); Cardus found independent enrolment +24.1% in the six years after. StatCan shows most of the growth came earlier (1,998 in 2006/07 to 3,690 in 2011/12) and +31% after 2012 (4,359 in 2012/13 to 5,694 in 2024/25). The causal claim is weaker than the draft's wording",
   "range": "StatCan SK independent 2006/07-2019/20: +176%; Fraser (draft) +132.9% since 2000",
   "confidence": "medium-high (dates), low (causation)",
   "basis": "Two sources on start year; time series on growth timing",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SK-QIS; S-CARDUS-SK-QIS; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "timing"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-19",
   "topic": "Ontario rate vs funded provinces",
   "best_estimate": "Ontario (7.4-7.5%) trails BC and Quebec clearly; it trails Manitoba on Fraser's measure (8.7%) but is level with it on StatCan's (7.5% in 2023/24); it leads Alberta on StatCan's measure (4.9%) and, narrowly, on Fraser's (6.7%), and leads Saskatchewan (2.8%)",
   "range": "ON 7.4 (Fraser) / 7.5 (StatCan) vs AB 6.7 / 4.9, SK 2.8 / 2.8, MB 8.7 / 7.5",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Two series, same ordering except Manitoba",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-WOSE-2026-NR; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-20",
   "topic": "Public per-student spending",
   "best_estimate": "Fraser: $13,494 (Alberta) to $19,484 (Quebec), national $16,579 (2022/23, 2025 edition). The 2026 edition (to 2023/24) exists; its per-student table was not readable",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "high for 2022/23",
   "basis": "Release text republished by a news aggregator; consistent with the draft",
   "supporting_sources": "S-FI-SPEND-2025; S-FI-SPEND-2026",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-21",
   "topic": "Canadian edtech market size",
   "best_estimate": "Published estimates differ several-fold by definition: a broad 'edtech and smart classrooms' estimate of about US$13 billion (2025) growing about 12% a year; a narrower education-technology estimate of about US$3 billion (2025) growing about 11.5% a year; a learning-management-systems segment of about US$3 billion. All are vendor-published",
   "range": "US$3.2B to US$13.4B (2025); CAGR 11.5%-14.5%",
   "confidence": "low (vendor estimates, definitions differ)",
   "basis": "Three vendor pages; the owner's figures match the broadest definition; MarketsandMarkets reuse needs permission",
   "supporting_sources": "S-MM-CA-EDTECH; S-MARKNTEL-CA-EDTECH",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition (scope), licensing"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-22",
   "topic": "Alberta OIPC PowerSchool findings",
   "best_estimate": "Confirmed: F2025-IR-02 (17 Nov 2025), 22 recommendations (6 to educational bodies, 13 to PowerSchool, 3 to government); public bodies cannot outsource accountability",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Primary report read",
   "supporting_sources": "S-AB-OIPC-IR02; S-AB-OIPC-PR",
   "reconciliation_cause": "n/a"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-23",
   "topic": "Ontario IPC PowerSchool recommendations",
   "best_estimate": "Count unresolved. Reporting describes recommendations in four areas (contracts, vendor oversight, restricting remote access, breach response and safeguards); one law-firm summary counts nine; 14 was not found. Boards must give proof of compliance within six months. The IPC found the institutions lacked reasonable measures and cannot outsource accountability",
   "range": "4 areas (Torkin Manes, The Record), 9 (Lerners), 14 (draft)",
   "confidence": "medium for findings, low for any count",
   "basis": "Primary decision returned 403; four secondary sources agree on content, not on count",
   "supporting_sources": "S-ON-IPC-PS; S-LERNERS-PS; S-TORKIN-PS; S-RECORD-PS; S-BLG-PS",
   "reconciliation_cause": "primary unreachable"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-24",
   "topic": "Manitoba independent and homeschool counts",
   "best_estimate": "Ministry, 1 Oct 2025: independent 20,604 (funded 18,012 in 71 schools; non-funded 2,592 in 67), homeschool 5,531 (+6.4%), total 224,724. StatCan 2023/24: independent 16,011, homeschool 5,106",
   "range": "Independent 14,325 (StatCan 2019/20) to 16,254 (Fraser via draft) to 20,604 (ministry 2025)",
   "confidence": "high (ministry, primary)",
   "basis": "Ministry report is primary; earlier figures are older and partly definitional (StatCan counts Catholic schools as independent)",
   "supporting_sources": "S-MB-ENR-2025; S-SC-TBL-0109",
   "reconciliation_cause": "year, definition"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-25",
   "topic": "Quebec home-education rule",
   "best_estimate": "Annual notice to the minister (and school service centre) by 1 July, a learning project implemented by 30 September, a status report and two progress reports each year; ministerial exams appear in secondary summaries only",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "high for notice and project; medium for exams",
   "basis": "quebec.ca process page, the Regulation and Western Quebec School Board guidance agree",
   "supporting_sources": "S-QC-HS2; S-QC-WQSB",
   "reconciliation_cause": "description"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-26",
   "topic": "Saskatchewan home-based education rules and funding",
   "best_estimate": "Notice of at least 30 days with a written education plan, to a school division; the division monitors; the policy manual has a portfolio section; no confirmed provincial 'annual report'. Division grants vary (for example $800 elementary / $550 high school for materials in one division; up to $1,000 reimbursement in another). The provincial funding rule was not read",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "medium",
   "basis": "Divisions' own pages and the 2015 Regulations; manual not re-read",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SK-DIV-PAGES",
   "reconciliation_cause": "local variation"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-27",
   "topic": "BC and Ontario home-education funding",
   "best_estimate": "BC: the province pays the registering school $250 per registered homeschooled child (public school) or $175 (independent Group 1/2), not the family; distributed-learning enrolment is funded separately. Ontario: no funding found. Manitoba: none (official)",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "medium-high",
   "basis": "BC government homeschooling page (via search summary); Manitoba official page",
   "supporting_sources": "S-BC-HS-PAGE; S-MB-HSO",
   "reconciliation_cause": "description"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-28",
   "topic": "Privacy statutes list",
   "best_estimate": "PIPEDA; Ontario FIPPA and MFIPPA; Alberta's Protection of Privacy Act (POPA, in force 11 June 2025, replacing FOIP for public bodies, though the PowerSchool findings were made under FOIP); Quebec Law 25; BC FOIPPA. Bill 96 is a language law, listed separately",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "Statutes and regulator reports",
   "supporting_sources": "S-AB-OIPC-IR02; S-INT-PACKCA14",
   "reconciliation_cause": "description"
  },
  {
   "id": "TRI-29",
   "topic": "'Independent schools grew every year this century'",
   "best_estimate": "Share has risen in every province with data since 2000/01 and nationally to a new high (StatCan 8.0%, 2024/25). Headcount dipped three times since 2006/07, each time under 2%: 2009/10 (-1.8%), 2011/12 (-0.3%) and 2020/21 (-1.9% in the current table, -2.2% in the earlier vintage)",
   "range": "n/a",
   "confidence": "high",
   "basis": "StatCan series",
   "supporting_sources": "S-SC-TBL-0109; S-SC-DAILY-2026",
   "reconciliation_cause": "definition"
  }
 ]
}